An Israeli 9-11

Rockets are fired from Gaza City towards Israel on Oct. 7. Photographer: Said Khatib/AFP/Getty Images 

Today, the Iranian backed Palestinian terrorist organization Hamas, launched a brilliantly executed a surprise multi-domain surprise attack on Israel. Hamas commandos launched an air, sea, and land attack in which their units breached the Israeli fortifications on their border and killed at least 250 Israelis, including an Israeli Army Brigade Commander, wounded about 1500 more, and captured around 50 people, military and civilians, taking them back to Gaza as hostages.

Hamas launched nearly 5000 rockets and missiles into Israel, overwhelming the Iron Dome Missile Defense System. The Hamas commandos got by Israeli defenses using boats and hang gliders. Others breached a border crossing and the border wall. They overran Israeli military bases, destroying and capturing tanks and vehicles. They swarmed Israeli settlements, killing, wounding and capturing civilians. People in Israel compared the shock to that of the 9-11-2001 attacks on the United States.

Destroyed Israeli tank on the border with Gaza. (AP Photo/Hassan Eslaiah)

The surprise appears to have been complete. They achieved tactical and operational surprise with strategic and political ramifications. The attack came on the Jewish Sabbath and the holiday of Shemini Atzeret/Simchat Torah, meaning that many military personnel were on leave, and civilians unprepared. Significantly, it occurred on the 50th anniversary of the Egyptian and Syrian attacks that began the Yom Kippur War in 1973.

The attack had to be in the planning stage for months. It was too large and well coordinated not to have been. The surprise was likely because Israeli human intelligence sources in Gaza were either unaware of what was happening or had been compromised and turned. One report noted how Hamas has stopped using all telephonic communications, because the Israelis control all telephone exchanges in Gaza and monitor all cell and landline communication it it. They stopped operating out of bases and have moved into apartment buildings, residences, bunkers and tunnels, while building networks of terrorist cells who have little or no knowledge of the larger organization, and relying on networks of messengers and dead drops to ensure that even if the network is compromised that the compromised individual will have little knowledge of the bigger picture. This is probably why neither the Israelis or any other intelligence agencies saw the attack coming.

The specter of the 1973 Yom Kippur war hangs over Israel as they were completely surprised by the Egyptian and Syrian attacks at that time. The tactical and operational surprise reflects badly on the MOSSAD and Shin Beth intelligence services, and likewise US intelligence as nobody saw this coming. The Israelis have a difficult series of choices ahead, and their military decisions will be influenced by political realities. It is likely that the Netanyahu government will fall, especially since his whole political persona is based on being tough against terror.

The attack has given Hamas tactical, strategic, and political advantages they never had. They took advantage of the chaos in Israel’s domestic political situation as well as ours (thank you GOP radicals) to make this attack. They achieved tactical and operational surprise and their goal was not seizing territory, as in a conventional military campaign, but taking hostages and forcing the Israelis to react with harsh military strikes against Gaza.

The taking of so many hostages by Hamas will hamstring any Israeli response, unless the Israelis chose to disregard losing them and simply strike back as hard as they can. In the past the Israelis have worked hard to free hostages to avoid losing lives. The hostages will complicate Israeli politics, as nobody in Israel wants to loose anyone to terrorists.

Politically, the attack undermines Netanyahu, especially because his policies undercut support he has in the military and intelligence services. The 1973 war resulted in the downfall of the government of Golda Meir. It also probably delays the attempts of the Israelis, Saudis, and us to normalize relations. Through Hamas, the Palestinians have managed to put themselves into the broader strategic picture for the first time in decades. Likewise, our political situation hinders our response, especially since the House GOP has prevented the Defense appropriations bill from being passed, and Tommy Tuberville’s hold on critical military promotions has meant that key positions are not filled, preventing the military from setting policy and being able to quickly face a new crisis. Unfortunately, unlike Republicans like Dwight Eisenhower, Ronald Reagan, or Barry Goldwater, the current crop of Trump Cult, MAGA Republicans seem only to care about creating domestic and foreign crises that they can exploit to achieve absolute political control in this country, our national security or interests be damned. They are like the French conservatives of the 1930s who so weakened the Third Republic that it fell easily to the Nazis. When the Nazis won, most of their leaders openly collaborated with the Nazis. I could see the Trump-MAGA people DOJ g the same.

Unfortunately, this attack is not happening in a vacuum. The genocidal Russian invasion of Ukraine continues, even as the Republican Party’s radicals try to cut off U.S aid, thus strengthening and emboldening the dictatorship of Vladimir Putin. Likewise, Putin seems to be encouraging the Serbians to destabilize and possibly bring about a war in the Balkans. One cannot ignore the continuing Chinese threats against Taiwan and in the South China Sea, or the North Korean threats in Northeast Asia.

I cannot presume to know what will happen next, or in the coming days, weeks, and months, however, I can only imagine the worst for all involved.

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