The Prigozhin Putsch: A Riddle, Wrapped in a Mystery, Inside an Enema

The Wagner Rebellion: What We Know, Don’t Know, and Can Only Speculate

I have been watching the current situation in Russia following the kind of, sort of, almost, but aborted coup attempt by Yevgeny Prigozhin and his private military organization, the Wagner Group with great interest and wonder. Winston Churchill famously said that Russia is a mystery, wrapped in a riddle, inside an enigma. I would add that when we begin to see inside Russia, that what we see is like the results of an enema. In this instance the enema was induced by the man once known a “Putin’s Chef” Yevgeny Prigozhin.

I was so tempted to write about this as Prigozhin’s Wagner Group forces were advancing towards Moscow on Saturday, even after Vladimir Putin went on television to call him a traitor. But, almost as soon as I was ready to write, Belarusian President Alexandr Lukanhesko made a deal with Prigozhin to end his revolt. It was both fascinating and frightening to watch, mostly because it presented a scene of chaos in a nation full of nuclear weapons, currently in the middle of a criminal war of genocidal aggression against Ukraine.

Since Prigozhin’s forces had encountered very little resistance from Russian army or security forces, capturing the Southern District Military headquarters and other bases in Rostov on Don and Voronezh without resistance, I believed, like many others, that he had help from leaders in the Russian army and security forces. Likewise, his troops were greeted almost joyfully by Russian citizens. The latter is due to the celebrity that Prigozhin has built around himself over the course of the war with Ukraine, often succeeding (at high cost) where regular army forces failed, by honoring his fallen troops and showing personal sympathy to their families, and saying what official sources would not say about the incompetence of Russian Minister of Defense General Sergei Shoigu and General Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces. Just prior to the revolt they announced that Wagner would become part of the regular military.

Now Vladimir Putin, the former mid-level KGB officer who manipulated his way into perpetual power twenty years ago, becoming a de-facto dictator of a state run more like a criminal organization than a true nation is in trouble. The Prigozhin revolt, even though it was aborted demonstrated to Russians and the world that Putin is sitting atop a house of cards which could come down in an instant.

Until the second Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 Prigozhin and his Wagner Group were a key part of Putin’s autocracy. His troops were some of Putin’s “Little Green Men” the forces that were part of Russia’s first invasion of Ukraine in 2014, and have been key players in Russian operations in Africa and the Middle East, where Wagner also built a lucrative business empire, significantly enriching Prigozhin in the process. Prigozhin’s “Internet Research Agency” Intelligence branch was very active in the 2016-2018 disinformation campaigns regard U.S. elections and were specifically named in the Muller Report dealing with Russian interference in U.S. elections. In addition to these “corporations” Prigozhin founded a network of highly profitable food supply and construction enterprises that have enriched him and given him many connections with the Russian Government and military, as well as Lukanhesko’s Belarus.

But before the collapse of the Soviet Union, Prigozhin was a criminal serving a sentence for robbery, fraud, and involving teenagers in crime. After his release in 1990, he and his mother began selling hotdogs on the streets of Leningrad, making large profits which he used to purchase interest in one of Russia’s largest grocery stores, and the rest is history. Prigozhin, his Wagner Group, and other organizations have been designated as criminal organizations and been sanctioned by the United States and the European Union.

However, this is not a new phenomenon in Russian history, nor is the number of Russian rulers to have their rule ended by military coups or assassination. With the exception of a few somewhat enlightened Tsars, the rule of Russia in whatever form has been the rule of despots backed by oligarchs. As recently as last year Putin awarded Prigozhin with the honor Hero of the Russian Federation. Not bad for a man who just attempted a revolt.

I cannot predict what will happen next, but I can speculate that Putin, Prigozhin, and even Lukanhesko are now living on borrowed time. Likewise, I think that Putin’s grip on Russia is now weaker than ever and that the bastions that he has built around himself will not be able to save him. He might succeed in assassinating Prigozhin in his supposed Belorussian safe haven before he loses power, but such a move will only increase opposition to him, as for many Russians, Prigozhin became the voice of truth about the incompetence of the Russian High Command and the massive losses incurred during the war. His constant recruiting, his continued presence at the front with his troops, the empathy he showed in publicly mourning his dead personal sympathy shown to mothers of his soldiers made him a popular figure. Prigozhin is a criminal and thug, but his touch is much more human than that of Putin who since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic and his war against Ukraine has become more isolated and paranoid. As far as Lukanhesko, his rule is entirely dependent on Putin remaining in power, but if Putin falls without succeeding in killing Prigozhin, the Belorussian dictator might well use Prigozhin to protect himself and his position.

As far as how this influences the war in Ukraine, there are a number of possibilities. Putin could double down, but without the Wagner troops led by Prigozhin, his ground forces on the front will be at a severe disadvantage. They are poorly led, poorly equipped, poorly trained, and their moral is nonexistent. As long as they are in well protected positions they will fight, but once their defenses are breached they will face disaster. The effect of the revolt in the Russian rear areas will be significant. The Russians already have significant command, control, and logistics problems, and the albeit temporary Wagner seizure of the Southern Area headquarters in Rostov will only serve to exacerbate those issues. While this does not mean that Ukraine will enjoy an immediate romp in their offensive against Russia, but that Russian defenses will begin to crumble.

Finally, the question is how Putin responds in Russia. He has show a particular sadistic ruthlessness in dealing with anyone that he suspects of personal betrayal, or for that matter he considers a threat to him. I expect that he will use the FSB or GRU to target Prigozhin, but that he also might clean house in the Ministry of Defense and other security agencies because of how easily Prigozhin’s troops advanced towards Moscow.

The end of the revolt is not the end of the crisis. Putin is skating on thin ice, the Russian Federation is not stable, and there are too many variables to know exactly what happens next. The good thing is that our intelligence saw Prigozhin’s revolt coming before the Russians did. That, and that alone gives us and anyone really concerned with what happens next an edge. Putin has displayed an immense paranoia for his life and position over the past several years. He could respond in an illogical manner to anything in Russia, Ukraine, or beyond his borders that he fears imperils him.

Timothy Snyder wrote, “The Russian oligarchy established after the 1990 elections continues to function, and promotes a foreign policy designed to destroy democracy elsewhere.” I cannot imagine any case in which this will not be the case regardless of how this crisis finally plays out. Putin and Prigozhin are simply two heads of Medusa, as are the other oligarchs and leaders of the Russian Federation. None of them are the good guys, and no-matter who is left standing the results will be ugly.

In light of all of these facts and uncertainties we can only view Russia as a mystery, wrapped in a riddle, inside an enema. Whatever happens, regardless of its final results will not be pretty. Just like the results of an enema.