The Surety of Unforeseen and Uncontrollable Events: The Fallout of Hamas’s Unforgivably Barbarous Terror Attacks Against Israel

Victims of the Hamas Massacre at the Nova Tribe Music Festival

As European armies mobilized for war in August 1914 and the great powers of Europe declared war on August 2nd, many leaders felt emotions ranging from excitement to foreboding. In Whitehall that evening, Sir Edward Grey, standing with a friend at the window as the street lamps below were being lit, made the remark that has since epitomized the hour: “The lamps are going out all over Europe; we shall not see them lit again in our lifetime.”

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The attack by the Hamas terrorists on Israel, like the Russian war against Ukraine, was a gross violation of all civilized norms of warfare. It was not conducted against military targets, although some border posts were overrun and soldiers killed or captured in the attack. It was first and foremost an attack on civilians. The attacks can only be called terrorist acts for which no arguments of moral equivalence can be given. Hamas did this to increase its power and to destroy the possibility of peace between Israel and other Arab countries. While the connection has not yet been proven, I expect that Iran and Hezbollah had a major role in this with probable support from Russia, all of which have significant reasons to destabilize the region.

So far, over 800 Israeli civilians and about 85 soldiers have been killed. Two hundred sixty, of the dead were young people attending a concert for peace who were brutally massacred. At least 11 of the victims were American citizens. Many of the people massacred at the concert location were shot, others had their throats slashed, and at least one was killed by a rocket-propelled grenade that was fired directly at him. Still others were ambushed in their cars as they attempted to flee.

People in towns were taken from their houses and, in some cases, burned out of their homes and bomb shelters. Some, including families, the elderly, and young children were murdered in the streets, while others were taken to Gaza. The death toll is expected to rise as other bodies are recovered. To put the number of casualties into perspective, those 900 Israeli dead would be equivalent to 30,000 Americans.

An estimated 150 more people have been kidnapped and taken into Gaza, where they are held as bargaining chips and human shields. Hamas has promised to execute them for Israeli attacks against Gaza.

What the Hamas terrorists did in Israel brought back stark visions of the pogroms Jews have been subjected to, but also the actions of the Nazi Einsatzgrüppen in Poland and Russia in the Second World War. The photos and videos of civilians, including women, children, and the elderly being dragged out of their homes, cars, and at a concert, being killed, beaten, and kidnapped were much like the crimes of the Nazis.

Contrary to the view of many people, Hamas is not a legitimate government, nor is it a resistance movement. It was formed as a more extreme breakaway from the Islamic Jihad terrorist group in 1986. It is no different than Al Qaida or the Islamic State, and the United States labeled it a terrorist organization in 2006.

When Israel withdrew from the Gaza Strip Hamas took power in a highly irregular election against Fatah in 2006, which rules the Palestinian Authority on the West Bank. Since taking power they have not allowed another election, and rule with an iron hand. Through their unremitting terrorist campaigns against Israel have created an abominable hellhole for the two and a half million inhabitants of the Gaza Strip. The people have served as hostages and human shields for Hamas. The plight of these people has not been helped by blockades of the border by Israel and Egypt. However, in 2021 Israel inaugurated a program that allowed 15,000 Palestinians to work in Israel and increased the delivery of goods to Gaza. Israel provides Gaza’s fresh water, electricity, and phone exchanges. The terrorist attacks have ended all of those baby steps to helping the Palestinians in Gaza. However, despite the minor concessions, the current Israeli government has not been serious about settling the festering crisis on its borders.

The brutal attack was well-planned and the deception operation was masterful. The Israelis believed that Hamas did not have the capability to conduct such an attack and that they had lost the will to do so in order to deal with economic issues. Over the past few months, Israel has focused on troubles in the West Bank while negotiating a deal for normalized relations with Saudi Arabia.

The Hamas attack was a tactical success. It was well planned, timed, and executed. It was launched on the Sabbath and a significant significant religious holiday. Israeli Army posts were manned at minimal levels with many soldiers on leave. The rapidity of the assault by approximately 1,000 well-trained Hamas commandos to breach the border defenses allowed other less trained terrorists to enter Israel, where they wreaked havoc and slaughter in numerous settlements and the peace concert site.

Hamas has continued its attacks and is believed to have infiltrated more terrorists into Israel. Islamic Jihad sent terrorists into Israel from Lebanon while Hezbollah fired rockets into northern Israel. The fear is that Hezbollah, which is far a more formidable military power than Hamas will enter the war. Armed by Iran, Hezbollah has over 100,000 rockets and missiles on Israel’s northern border. Likewise, the possibility that further violence against Israelis on the West Bank could open second and third fronts.

Another concern is the role of Iran. Most Middle East experts believe that there is a high probability that Iran had some involvement in the supply of rockets, and the planning, and might have ordered the attack to torpedo the Saudi-Israeli diplomatic efforts. A direct link of Iranian involvement has not yet been shown, but if Iranian involvement can be shown, I would expect that Israel will retaliate.

Israeli units moving into northern Israel.

Israel declared war on Hamas and the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu has said that this will be a long and difficult war. The Israelis have called up 300,000 reservists and El Al flights have been dispatched to bring others back from abroad. An estimated 100,000 Israeli soldiers are on their way to the Gaza border and it is expected that the Israelis will launch a ground attack into Gaza as there is a limit that air and artillery strikes can do in the massive urban environment of Gaza without killing large numbers of civilians without doing much to affect Hamas’s military power or infrastructure of bunkers and tunnels which are often hidden in apartment buildings and hospitals in violation of international conventions.

The Israeli ground assault will probably be a systematic, building-by-building, block-by-block urban operation. It will not be a blitzkrieg, it will be a deliberate assault designed to kill every Hamas operative while attempting to minimize Palestinian civilian casualties, including giving advance notice of attacks. We can expect that Hamas will do all that it can to ensure that Palestinian civilians die to attempt to turn international opinion against Israel. Israel and its allies should not be deterred by this as such would be a surrender to Hamas that would ensure its survival. That cannot be allowed to happen.

The German military theorist Carl von Clausewitz wrote:

“Now, philanthropists may easily imagine there is a skillful method of disarming and overcoming an enemy without causing great bloodshed, and that this is the proper tendency of the art of War. However plausible this may appear, still it is an error which must be extirpated; for in such dangerous things as war, the errors which proceed from a spirit of benevolence are just the worst.”

As a civilized nation Israel has, and will attempt to minimize the deaths and suffering of civilians. This is something that Hamas did not do. But, in urban combat with an enemy such as Hamas, that will not be completely successful, especially when civilians turn themselves into suicide bombers. American soldiers and Marines experienced that in Iraq and Afghanistan.

But, Hamas brought this on themselves and the Palestinians in Gaza will suffer immensely. However, the Israelis need to heed the words of William Tecumseh Sherman: “You cannot qualify war in harsher terms than I will. War is cruelty, and you cannot refine it; and those who brought war into our country deserve all the curses and maledictions a people can pour out.

As of this hour, we can only speculate about what follows and the branches and sequels of any military action. As of now there are two hot wars raging, that in Ukraine and the new war in Israel. If Iran enters the conflict it will become a regional war involving many Middle Eastern Nations. Russia has been stoking violence between Serbia and its Balkan neighbors, setting up another possible flashpoint between them and NATO. Likewise, we have to be concerned about what China will do concerning Taiwan and the South China Sea.

All of this will affect all of us. There will be economic consequences as the price of oil rises which will increase prices of almost everything. A wider war could involve the United States and its allies. Jewish communities around the world are going to experience antisemitic violence, numerous incidents have already been reported in France. Neo-Nazis, White Nationals and Muslim extremists will probably do the same in the United States.

We need to prepare ourselves for the worst, for as Sherman also said, “War is hell.” Likewise, every leader needs to remember the words of Winston Churchill:

“Never, never, never believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on the strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The statesman who yields to war fever must realize that once the signal is given, he is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.”

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