The War Begins and Disaster Looms: Trump’s March of Folly

“No one is so sure of his premises as the man who knows too little.”

Barbara Tuchman wrote: “No one is so sure of his premises as the man who knows too little.” In no case has any American President exemplified these words more than Donald Trump, with the possible exemption of William McKinley whose war against the Filipino people after allegedly “liberating” them from Spanish colonial rule led Mark Twain to write, “There must be two Americas: one that sets the captive free, and one that takes a once-captive's new freedom away from him, and picks a quarrel with him with nothing to found it on; then kills him to get his land.”

While Trump mangled his words and messaging this week and various pundits suggested that it was all a bluff and that TACO Trump would chicken out again. I did not expect him to do that, but the award winning author and journalist Seymour Hersch said on his Substack a couple of days ago that it would take place this weekend. I did expect him to keep people guessing until the carriers arrived, but I fully expected an attack, despite the divisions in MAGA between pro and anti-war factions, and from the comments of Putin’s Russian officials warning against it.

The attack took place even though U.S. Intelligence services have said that there was no credible evidence of an Iranian nuclear threat, or even near term capability. Trump’s Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard testified to that in Congress. Likewise, Congress was not consulted on the attack.

The “intelligence” used was from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who has been claiming the same thing since 2012. According to him the Iranians have always been just “months away” from having an operational nuclear device.

All deployments and movements of U.S. forces over the past week pointed to war. I expected it to begin in about two weeks when the Nimitz and Ford Carrier Strike Groups arrived in theater. Even so, 12 of 19 B-2 stealth bombers are now deployed or enroute, 3 of 11 Carrier Strike Groups (Vinson, Nimitz, and Ford) will be in theater in about 2 weeks. Vinson already there and probably in action, Nimitz now in the eastern Indian Ocean and Ford deploying from Norfolk this week. Currently there are one guided missile cruiser and 11 Arleigh Burke class DDGs in theater with 8 more Burke’s enroute with Nimitz and Ford. There are also an unknown number of attack submarines (SSNs) which are equipped cruise missiles, and Guided Missile submarines (SSGNs) which were Ohio Class Ballistic Missile Submarines, but converted to fire cruise missiles, of which they have 154 Tomahawk cruise missiles, and can carry 60 man SEAL or other SOF detachments, that are most likely on station or enroute. Each carrier strike group usually has a SSN attached to it. The Reagan CSG is now the lone CSG facing China. Scores of USAF F-22 Raptors, F-15s, F-16s, refueling and transport aircraft are now in theater. An unknown number of Navy SEAL Teams and and Army Special Forces units, and Air Force Special Operations aircraft are certainly in theater.

The U.S. has said that the Fordo, Natanz, and Esfahan nuclear facilities were hit, without indicating the forces involved. It was announced that a bomb damage assessment said that Fordo “has been taken off the table.” Fox Chatterbox Sean Hannity, and confidant of Trump announced that 6 weapons were dropped on Fordo while Tomahawk cruise missiles, likely from U.S. Navy Guided Missile Destroyers and a Cruiser in the Gulf of Oman. The bombs were certainly GBU-57, 30,000 pound “Massive Ordnance Penetrators”. The B-2 can carry two of them each, and the B-52 can also drop them.

Trump made a televised speech from the White House where he said, “The strikes were a spectacular military success,” saying that the key enrichment facilities have been “totally and completely obliterated”. Trump continued by warning that if Iran did not make peace “future attacks will be far greater and a lot easier.” He concluded his speech with this remark. “There will be either peace or tragedy for Iran far greater than we have witnessed over the last eight days. Remember, there are many targets left. Tonights were the most difficult by far… But if peace does not come quickly we will go after those other targets with precision speed and skill. Most of them can be taken out in a matter of minutes. There’s no military in the world that could have done what we did tonight, not even close.”

While Trump is correct about the destruction that the United States and Israel can do to Iran, its military and infrastructure. However, with the exception of the NATO air campaign against Serbia during the 1999 Kosovo conflict, no purely air campaign forced an enemy to give up. But, the truth is more complicated. The crisis almost brought Russia into the war, and if Serbian President Slobodan Milosovich had not lost his nerve, his forces had suffered few losses and our attack to liberate Kosovo would have been very costly. Likewise, Japan was already begging for peace when we dropped the atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and even then Japanese Army officers attempted a coup to prevent Emperor Hirohito’s recording of a surrender announcement from being broadcast.

The fact is that Iran still has numerous capabilities that can complicate the situation. First, Iran is a nation of 91 million people, that despite the opposition to the theocratic dictatorship of the Ayatollahs, remain proud Iranians, with a history dating back to the Persian Empire. While the attacks might encourage some resistance, many more people could be inspired to fight for their country. Likewise, while Iran’s military has suffered many losses they still can strike Israel, but even more importantly strike U.S. military installations in the Gulf. Those only require short range missiles, of which Iran has a plentiful supply. Finally, despite its losses, even at the port of Bandar Abbas tonight, Iran can still raise havoc in the Straits of Hormuz and possibly close it to shipping.

The one thing that the shallow minds of Trump and his nation security team fail to appreciate is that the enemy always has a vote. Likewise, as Clausewitz so wisely said, “No one starts a war–or rather, no one in his sense ought to do so–without first being clear in his mind what he intends to achieve by the war and how he intends to conduct it.”

Iran has many asymmetric capabilities which probably include sleeper agents in the United States, Europe, and the Gulf who can conduct terrorist acts in an instant against soft targets. The Iranians know that the Saudis are assisting Israel, and can easily strike Saudi oil production sites, as well as oil shipment sites in other Gulf states. Iran is not out of this by far and though it is totally outclassed militarily, it has ways to make things worse for us. The costs of this war are incalculable and could do great harm to our people, our economy, and our country, not to mention our allies and friends, including Israel. As Clausewitz wrote: “War is the province of chance. In no other sphere of human activity must such a margin be left for this intruder. It increases the uncertainty of every circumstance and deranges the course of events.”

Trump, Hegseth, Rubio, and most of the rest of the Trump team don’t understand this. They don’t plan for it, and they always are surprised when someone tosses a turd in their punchbowl. Iran still has plenty of turds to toss. They think that war can be made easy and safe. They haven’t learned anything. William Tecumseh Sherman had it right when he said, “Every attempt to make war easy and safe will result in humiliation and disaster.”

By confining the war to air and missile strikes Trump and Netanyahu are trying to make this war easy and safe. That cannot be done. What happens over the next few days, weeks, and months has not been written. It will be unpredictable and portends disaster. This evening the Iranian Revolutionary Guards posted “For us the war has just begun.” Don’t expect it to be easy or short.

So until next time, have a great night and better tomorrow.