Waiting for Hell as the Lights Go Out in the Middle East
A Wounded Marine being Rescued from the Marine Barracks in Beirut, October 23rd, 1983
Today is the 40th anniversary of the Hezbollah attack on the US Marine peacekeeping forces in their barracks in Beirut, Lebanon, and the barracks of the French 1st and 9th Parachute Regiments. Both barracks were driven into by massive truck bombs early that Sunday morning. Two-hundred-forty-one U.S. Marines, Sailors, and Soldiers, as well as 58 French paratroopers died that day. Many more were wounded. In 2001 I served as Chaplain for the Marine Battalion that was at Beirut, the 1st Battalion, 8th Marines. Our Chief Hospital Corpsman was a young Navy Corpsman who was wounded at Beirut. I cannot forgot that day. I was a young Army Lieutenant attending a course at Fort Knox. I couldn’t sleep and was watching CNN when the news broke about the attack, those images were burned into my mind and I never expected to serve with that unit 18 years later. When I was at Camp LeJeune on my second tour there, I would visit the memorial to those killed in Beirut. It was always a sobering experience to stand there and read the names of our fallen. Most of the dead were close to my age at the time of their deaths. Young men on a mission of peace, killed by the predecessors of the terrorists who are threatening to unleash hell today.
The operation, designed to help bring an end to a Lebanese Civil War and cover the Israeli incursion into southern Lebanon designed to help Lebanon’s then-Christian president, and his notorious militia, against Lebanese Druze and other Muslim groups failed. Hezbollah, then a tiny little-known Iranian-backed organization, eventually became what it is now, a power player in Lebanon and Syrian with a large well-organized military organization including active and reserve forces. Hezbollah controls all of south Lebanon, areas near Beirut, and the northeast. The number of Hezbollah fighters is not known, Hezbollah’s leader claims that it has 100,000 fighters. They are trained by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Quds Force. Others estimate the number between 65,000 and over 100,000. It is mostly a light infantry force with tens of thousands of anti-tank weapons. They also have a large number of ground launched rockets and missiles, some of which can strike all parts of Israel. Israel estimates that Hezbollah has about 150,000 rockets in their inventory. These rockets and missiles are located at hundreds of launch sites in the areas of Lebanon that they control. In their 2006 conflict, Israel was not able to eliminate those launchers.
Tonight, I wait, like many people, for what will happen next in the Middle East as Israel prepares to launch its ground offensive against Hamas in Gaza, even as violence spreads throughout the region. Israel has mobilized 360,000 reservists, boosting its active force to well over 400,000 troops. Many of their units, including elite units are deployed on the border with Gaza, while others are deployed against the real possibility that the over 100,000 strong Iranian backed Hezbollah terrorist army in southern Lebanon. There have also been clashes on the Syrian border with Iranian backed militias, and the Israeli Air Force has conducted air raids against several Syrian airfields and airports which it uses to supply its forces and their Syrian allies.
While the dance of death in the region plays out before our eyes, diplomats are attempting to get more humanitarian relief to civilians and negotiate for the release of the over two hundred Israeli and foreign national hostages taken by Hamas on October 7th. American, Qatari, Egyptian, Jordanian, and other country’s diplomats continue to work with Hamas and Israel on both of these measures. So far they have succeeded in getting about 30 truckloads of humanitarian aid into Gaza, and the release of four hostages. Admittedly, the aid is a drop in the bucket compared to what is needed. One of the concerns for Israel, Egypt, and the U.S., is that Hamas will not use these supplies for themselves as they often do, and not get them to civilians. People in Israel, Gaza, and around the world hope for more aid to arrive and hostages to be released as Israel keeps its ground invasion of Gaza on hold while continuing to attack Hamas units and headquarters in Gaza. Unfortunately, Hamas locates many of its military sites, including headquarters, ammunition depots, and rocket launch sites with or near civilian facilities, including Mosques, refugee camps, and hospitals.
How long Israel will delay its offensive is unknown. I expect less than a week regardless of what happens on the ground. However, it is possible that Prime Minister Netanyahu might be getting cold feet. I do not know what is happening, but I expect that events will continue to happen which will cause Israel to unleash its forces against Gaza. I expect that Hamas, which has brought about this tragic situation is doing its best by releasing a couple of hostages at a time, is using those releases as a propaganda tactic, just as they did with their rocket which hit the Christian hospital parking lot a week ago. They immediately blamed Israel which media outlets, including American ones, took up, without any evidence. They claimed that the Israelis committed an act of genocide and greatly inflated the numbers of dead and wounded to advance their narrative. They succeeded in getting Arab leaders to cancel a planned meeting with President Biden when he was in Israel. Everything Hamas does, including its alleged humanitarian release of hostages is designed with a propaganda motive to garner sympathy for them and undermine Israel. The founding charter of Hamas is based on destroying Israel and eradicating the Jews. When someone tells you what they want to do believe them. If people had read Mein Kampf, and believed what Hitler wrote in regards to Europe and the Jews, instead of appeasing Hitler throughout the 1930s, World War II and the Holocaust might never have happened.
Today, on the anniversary of the Hezbollah attack on the Marines and French in Beirut, and in the middle of a crisis that Iran is knee-deep in provoking, the Russian Foreign Minister visited Iran. Iran is supplying Russia with drones and munitions to use in its genocidal invasion of Ukraine, just as it funds, trains, and supplies Hezbollah and Hamas. Russia and Iran are criminal terrorist governments, and both hope to gain from their actions against Ukraine, Israel, the United States, and the West.
In the past few days, American military units in Iraq, Syria, and the Gulf of Oman have been attacked or engaged by Iran’s proxies. The military situation in Israel and the region situation is escalating.
The USS Dwight D. Eisenhower deploying to the Eastern Mediterranean
Because of the increasing threats the United States will have 2 carrier battle groups, consisting of 2 carriers, the USS Gerald Ford, and the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower, 2 guided missile cruisers, 8 guided missile destroyers, and an unknown number of attack and guided missile submarines in the Mediterranean, plus at least one carrier battle group that will likely come from the Pacific later to go to the Gulf of Oman near Iran. The two carriers in the Mediterranean have about 160-170 aircraft between them and the 2 cruisers and 8 destroyers have a total of 994 vertical missile launchers which can fire Tomahawk land attack cruise missiles capable of hitting Iran from the Mediterranean. The submarines also can fire Tomahawks. There are 5 guided missile destroyers based in ROTA, Spain which are committed to NATO which could also be available, adding about another 450-470 VLS tubes. The Air Force has sent several squadrons of A-10 Warthog ground attack/anti-tank aircraft to the region where they join other Air Force fighter and attack squadrons. The 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit is also in the Mediterranean with Marines, Aircraft, SEALs, and Amphibious Landing Ships that can evacuate Americans and others from the region if needed, these ships will be soon joined by another Amphibious Strike Group, with another MEU. Other units have been alerted for deployment. This is a hell of a lot of firepower offshore should Hezbollah and Iran join the attack against Israel, as President Biden warned them against.
I am deeply concerned for all those in harm's way and I have tremendous empathy for all of the civilian victims of this war, both Israeli and Palestinian. I have seen war. I have seen its victims. I believe that President Biden, while fully supporting Israel, is doing what he can to help the people of Gaza, without surrendering American foreign policy to Hamas. Unfortunately, to quote General William Tecumseh Sherman’s words to the Mayor of Atlanta in 1864, after the Mayor allowed General John Bell Hood to fortify the city against attack:
“The use of Atlanta for warlike purposes is inconsistent with its character as a home for families. There will be no manufactures, commerce, or agriculture here, for the maintenance of families, and sooner or later want will compel the inhabitants to go. Why no go now, when all the arrangements are completed for the transfer, instead of waiting till the plunging shot of contending armies will renew the scenes of the past month? Of course, I do not apprehend any such thing at this moment, but you do not suppose this army will be here until the war is over. I cannot discuss this subject with you fairly, because I cannot impart to you what we propose to do, but I assert that our military plans make it necessary for the Inhabitants to go away, and I can only renew my offer of services to make their exodus in any direction as easy and comfortable as possible. You cannot qualify war in harsher terms than I will. War is cruelty, and you cannot refine it; and those who brought war into our Country deserve all the curses and maledictions a people can pour out.”
If, or when the Israeli ground offensive in Gaza begins, the amount of death and destruction will be on the order of Stalingrad, except that unlike the Red Army which was able to get reinforcements across the Volga River and hold on until it could launch the counteroffensive that cut off the German 6th Army, Hamas is backed up against the Mediterranean Sea. There is no retreat and no reinforcements. Although Hamas has many tunnels, bunkers, and fortifications in the built-up areas of Gaza defended by 30,000-40,000 of their terrorist fighters, they will be crushed. The initial combat might take a week or two before Israel completely dominates the battlefield, after which they will spend weeks clearing out pockets of resistance in the tunnels. After the initial phase I imagine that the Israelis will try to get humanitarian aid into Gaza. Hamas leaders outside of Gaza will not be safe. Israel’s MOSSAD and intelligence services will track them down and kill them.
As I watch these events unfold I am reminded of the Tuchman’s immortal account of Sir Edward Grey and the outbreak of the First World War: “Watching with his failing eyes, the lamps being lit in St. James Park, Grey was heard to remark that “the lamps are going out all over Europe; we shall not see them again in our lifetime.”
With that uplifting thought, I wish you the best and hope that I am wrong.